Category Archives: leverage

Minor Wake-Up Call: U.S. Out of Cash By August 2!

This is a little something from back home we like to call the 'Hawaiian kiss-off'

Hold the phone, we run of cash when? In two and a half weeks? Bah, fie and tut-tut. So that’s what’s behind this whole debt-ceiling/deficit talk getting in the way of my “Mad Men” re-runs. But maybe there’s a silver lining. One humble query: If our entire nation can no longer pay its bills and decides to cut little old ladies’ social security checks, will anyone notice — or care — if I don’t pay mine?

Seems if the U.S. Treasury and Congress can’t get it together, then why should I?

During a pivotal summit with Republicans yesterday, Obama rose, looked around and, well, booked it out the door. (Or as The Wall Street Journal more kindly put it, Obama found himself “abruptly walking out of a key meeting.”)

Key meetings, as far as I can tell, are the kind you’re not supposed to walk out of. But the president’s the president, so what can you do? Continue reading Minor Wake-Up Call: U.S. Out of Cash By August 2!

The Global Oil Casino Benefits Only Its Players

Originally published in The Financial Times on April 6th, 2011

Tensions in the Middle East and north Africa, we are told, lie behind the recent increase in global fuel prices, which Wednesday hit a 2 ½-year high. Yet while Brent crude this week stayed above $120 a barrel, in Tripoli petrol hovered at around 54 cents a gallon. And that is not a typo. The popular reason for why those closest to the fighting, in this case, suffer less than those farther afield, is Libya’s hefty subsidies. The less popular reason is that world energy markets have been carefully designed to profit from the slightest supply hiccup, even if there is little evidence of actual shortages.

The energy-trading fraternity has never let the facts get in the way of a good supply scare. True, this historically fragile market is vulnerable to price swings as demand threatens to climb faster than production. But there is more to it than that. Indeed, what President Barack Obama did not mention last week in his energy security speech about the faults of the global energy market could fill a Saudi oilfield. Continue reading The Global Oil Casino Benefits Only Its Players

Killing Your Own: The Truth About Oil Speculators

Originally published on huffingtonpost.com on Mar. 14, 2011

In the mid-1990s, the U.S. Marine Corps sent more than a dozen generals, colonels and other high-ranking officers to the trading floor of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the world’s reigning oil market. Their mission: to see how the traders behaved when forced to make tough decisions under high stress with incomplete information.

What they found taught them a lot about the nature of the oil speculator. Continue reading Killing Your Own: The Truth About Oil Speculators

When It Comes to $100 Oil, It’s Every Man for Himself

Originally published on abcnews.go.com on Feb. 24, 2011

Energy Trading Is Rife with Loopholes for Some but Not All

Oil topped $100 a barrel for the first time Wednesday since 2008, the same year that Wall Street and Washington brought the nation to the brink of financial Armageddon.

But that was then. Surely both camps are much more prepared to deal with the fallout now, right?

Not so fast.

All appearances to the contrary, both camps have wasted very little time getting back to business as usual. Only in this case, Americans know for certain one thing they did not know back in 2008: If anything goes wrong, they’ll likely be the ones to foot the bill.

And that changes everything. Here is what you do not know about how the Powers That Be have been handling high energy prices and the ongoing credit crisis, more popularly known in Washington these days as “the recent unpleasantness.” Continue reading When It Comes to $100 Oil, It’s Every Man for Himself