Category Archives: Bahhd traders

Q&A With The Global Journal: Oil Trading And The Casino Syndrome

Happy National Pancake/Leap Year/Week before Super Tuesday Day, all. It has been a turbulent past few months and not just in the oil market. I will get into why very shortly but, for now, let’s just say that after a long and dark winter, I am once again available for dancing in the streets. Without any further cryptic remarks, I’d like to share an interview I just did with The Global Journal, based in Geneva, which rang me up to discuss ‘The Asylum’ and what the future holds for the energy market and gas prices during this, our illustrious Election Year.

(Q portions courtesy of Janine Huguenin-Virchaux, the magazine’s books and culture editor.)

Your book mentions that “the market is no longer reflecting supply and demand.” What is the use of a market that does not reflect the true price of oil? Do we need new hijackers?

That’s a great question – do we need new hijackers? If we could get some hijackers that could take back the market so that it does reflect supply and demand more clearly, then I would say yes, we do! However, I would also say that there is a serious debate going on about the extent to which price does reflect supply and demand. I think there is very good reason to believe that the price does not reflect it anymore. There is also a very technical reason for what has been going on that has not really been acknowledged or understood by many people. And that is the relationship between speculation and price discovery. A lot of the information that I get is from people who read the book and then they come to me and bring me stuff that nobody seems to really know about.

A lot of these guys are just regular traders who trade physical oil and feel that supply and demand is not reflected in the price correctly anymore. Whereas their entire lives – some of these men and women have been trading oil for thirty years or more – they feel the price did reflect it. So they believe there’s a huge difference in what they are seeing today in terms of the market fundamentals versus the price. And what they used to do was see price and fundamentals fit together better. They see a lot of distortion happening now. A lot of these people are concerned with that. I want to say, it’s not all about making money for these people: some of them look at this and say “Oh my God, it’s not acting the way it used to anymore and it doesn’t look like it’s headed anywhere good.” And that is aside from the fact that trading has become so ferocious that it is more about preserving a global casino than about supplying oil to people who need it.

That’s the problem. The casino aspect overshadows everything. Most of the people who play this game don’t want oil. They just want to play the game.

What is the alternative? I mean, these are the people who are speculating on the price of oil. Is there anything that can change to make it different? To make it less casino-like?

Yes, I think so. I am considering writing about this much more, the nature of speculation… Continue reading Q&A With The Global Journal: Oil Trading And The Casino Syndrome

How To Make Someone Else Swallow Your Losses, The Mastercourse

It’s official: when a Wall Street powerhouse suddenly collapses and (possibly) more than a billion dollars goes missing, it’s no longer just the ordinary taxpayer’s problem. Now, it has moved up the chain. Below, the piece I wrote today for Fortune on what traders do when you misappropriate their money.

While Occupy Wall Street was holding its two-month anniversary rally in Manhattan last week, traders were quietly mounting a rather more sophisticated version of OWS on their own. Call it Occupy Wall Street Bankruptcy Court.

FORTUNE — Big institutional investors are getting a taste of what many frustrated taxpayers experienced during the financial crisis: Being on the hook for losses of a major financial firm against their wishes.

This time, of course, it’s MF Global at the center of the dispute. A once-trusted brokerage with roots dating back to the 1700s, MF Global is now a bankrupt firm suspected of misappropriating customer funds to the tune of at least $600 million.

More than two weeks after MF Global’s Halloween bankruptcy filing, there are more questions than answers and a surfeit of conflicts in an investigation that should be aiming to restore the public’s confidence, but is doing the opposite. On Monday, the bankruptcy trustee for the case announced that there may be much more than $600 million missing from MF Global accounts — perhaps as much as $1.2 billion.

Hundreds of millions of dollars of trading capital and collateral were frozen without notice, dramatically disrupting the derivatives marketplace and ushering in a phalanx of federal prosecutors, regulatory agencies and forensic accountants working around the clock to determine where the missing money is. This, after a lawyer for MF Global assured a New York judge earlier this month “there is no shortfall.”

What’s different about this case?  One hedge fund executive summed it up best: “What is scary about MF Global is that there is no political will in this country to look out for people. Let this be a lesson that, if someone tries to steal from you, there is no one who is going to save you. I mean it is literally the most frightening thing that can happen in finance.”

Led by a sense of outrage — as well as the conviction that if they don’t look out for themselves, no one else will — investors have been pooling information and banding together to defend themselves for weeks. Continue reading How To Make Someone Else Swallow Your Losses, The Mastercourse

A Certain Stylishness In Hating The Rich

In Marie Antoinette's days, the guillotine was called the 'National Razor.'

Our national discourse on the nature of wealth has been a good cure for sanity of late.

News that a book coming out from the surviving son of Bernard Madoff, mastermind of the largest Ponzi scheme in history, elicited comments from readers that could be called anything but charitable. Alongside an interview with Madoff’s wife, Ruth, whose picture speaks volumes about the toll the scandal has taken on her life — not in the least the suicide of her other son — are comments that plainly show how bitter the feud has become between the rich and the working class in our country. In response to Ruth’s claims of not knowing of her husband’s illegal financial dealings, readers wrote:

“What a bunch of lies. Anyone in the industry knows that the returns had to be made up…the sons knew it, the wife knew it, everyone knew it.”

“I do not think Ruth knew, but she strikes me as remarkably incurious and shallow.”

And:

“This is a woman who married at 18 and never took responsibility for her own financial security. True, she raised their children but she chose to ignore the choices made by her husband.  Now she claims to be a victim. I am sorry but I do not buy this. She chose to remain ignorant.”

Overlooked was this part of the interview, in which Ruth Madoff discusses falling in love with her husband, as it would inevitably inspire some modicum of humanity.

Aside from Madoff-venting, the debates rage about the solutions. At Occupy Wall Street, which I visited last week, you have, on the one hand, a number of concerned Americans questioning — or outright decrying — capitalism in all its trappings. They suggest that the only solution is to raze and rebuild the entire political and financial system.

Unfortunately, they are still experimenting with new models to offer in its place.

On the other, you have national leaders quick to denounce the financial crisis, but just as quick to vote down any new rules aiming to prevent a financial crisis in the future.

Two G-Men (Goldman, that is): Obama and Corzine wave for the crowd

Already, we are seeing the results of this splintering of the populace: we remain effectively paralyzed to redress our own fragility, forced to lurch from one crisis to the next. Large financial powerhouses continue to fail spectacularly as the Department of Justice, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the Securities and Exchange Commission and a smattering of other government agencies struggle to keep up with reports of unchecked theft, negligence and fraud amid budget cuts frequently meant to hobble them (as if the backlog of cases they’re drowning in wasn’t enough).

In the meantime, too much money in all the wrong places undercuts the healthy cleansing that might otherwise be achieved through a democratic elections process. As one hedge funder told me while in New York last week: “Nothing can pass C0ngress, because the Republicans believe all regulation is bad. They don’t want another financial crisis, but they don’t approve of any new rules either. They haven’t quite worked out their dogma yet.” And we know Obama and the Democrats, whatever the dogma, do not appear capable of executing a plan.

Last week, former U.S. senator, New Jersey governor and high-ranking Goldman Sachs executive, Jon Corzine, stepped down from a job he held for just over a year as head of the world’s largest futures brokerage house. The 200-year-old-plus brokerage, MF Global, handled traders’ transactions in the multitrillion-dollar futures market, where people bet on the future prices of everything from soybeans to gasoline to interest rates.

Corzine’s company, which sought to become a mini-Goldman Sachs, filed for bankruptcy after betting more than $6 billion on bonds tied to the European debt crisis and getting caught short. Corzine, a self-described son of an insurance salesman who grew up on a “small family farm” in Illinois, raked in hundreds of millions at Goldman as he ascended to its highest echelons after starting out as a bond trader there.

Given his trading background, Corzine very likely understood exactly what kind of risk his brokerage was taking ahead of its downfall. (“A good rule of thumb is, if the guy is not a former trader, he probably didn’t know what hit him,” the hedge funder told me over a nice-sized steak. “But if you’re a former trader, you get the joke. You probably wrote the joke.”) Continue reading A Certain Stylishness In Hating The Rich

Dear The Fed: You Suck

I was cleansing my inbox today and found this friendly letter to the Fed from 2007 written by our comrades at Long or Short Capital (vaguely connected to our own fake hedge fund, Intergalactic Capital). I was all ready to take a whimsical walk down memory lane, since 2007 was the year before our  financial meltdown. Yet strangely, this missive does not seem dated.

To: The Fed
From:
Long or Short Capital
Re:
You suck

Dear the Fed,

You suck.  You don’t have a backbone and as a result you are slowly and very surely making our country and our currency irrelevant.  Usually the masses rebel and bring down great empires but luckily for us democracy fixed that problem.  Unfortunately, democracy can’t fix how lame and fickle you are and so you will be our ruin.

A few things to tell you:

1) Inflation isn’t 2% like your pathetic CPI ex-Food & Energy says it is.

First of all, as far as I can tell food and  energy are the only two items you should NEVER exclude from an inflation index.  Tell your wife and kids they can have everything in the consumer basket except food and energy and you will quickly see that they are actually the two MOST important and indispensable factors in the CPI.

You can find substitutes for, or go without, everything in the basket EXCEPT those two.

Secondly, stop using “Seasonally Adjusted Intervention Analysis” it’s as sketchy as the  Seldom-Accepted-Accounting-Principles (SAAP) we use to cook the books here at LoS.  I mean writing a computer program to automatically remove any items in the basket which deviate meaningfully from the previous year?  Isn’t the point of the data to SHOW the change versus the previous year, not hide it?  Oh, I found the list of items that you’ve adjusted for and it’s embarrassing. Continue reading Dear The Fed: You Suck

Trader Threatens To ‘Kill’ 47 U.S. Officials

‘I was being sued…it upset me.’

A midlife crisis can take many forms. Cheating on your spouse. Purchasing a Maserati. Wearing Billabong. Buying into The Lynx Effect. Just being a jerk. But putting up an “execution” list on your Web site of high-ranking financial and government officials and urging people to buy guns to help you kill them is one I haven’t heard of. Among those on the hit list of the smiling man in the orange tie to your left: the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission Mary Schapiro and the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Gary Gensler — both heavyweight Wall Street watchdogs.

“Go buy a gun, and let’s get to work in taking back our country from these criminals,” he wrote on his site, according to prosecutors. “I will be the first one to lead by example.”

The 50-year-old from Long Island is accused of threatening the lives of 47 current and former officials. (Yes, I said 47. You cannot make this stuff up.) Continue reading Trader Threatens To ‘Kill’ 47 U.S. Officials

Interview on ‘Keiser Report’ – Russia Today

Many of you have written to ask for a good bit more on the shenanigans prevalent in today’s oil market. Check out this show, aired today, from minute 14 on…(Thankfully, you can scroll through to the juicy stuff.) More to come on DOJ, FTC, CFTC and FERC investigations into the price of oil and gas — and where the biggest challenges lie for those who seek to break the back of the corruption.

 

New Book Reveals Who Controls Global Oil Prices

By Tim O’Shei

HOUSTON BUSINESS JOURNAL | Friday, Apr 8th 2011

Who controls the global oil prices?

Powerful banks? Massive hedge funds? Big Oil? OPEC?

There’s never been a straight answer to that question – until now.

Leah McGrath Goodman, a former special writer and editor for The Wall Street Journal and 1998 graduate of St. Bonaventure University, spent the last seven years writing a book that reveals where oil prices have been set for decades: the New York Mercantile Exchange. Or, as the title of Goodman’s book calls it, “The Asylum.”

Published this year by William Morrow/HarperCollins, “The Asylum” takes readers into the boardroom and onto the trading floor of Nymex. Goodman paints a warts-and-all portrait of the often rough-edged traders, for whom she claims making or losing millions in a day was as commonplace as fistfights, drugs and pornography.

By executing both their own deals for oil contracts and orders from big banks and hedge funds, the Nymex traders set the benchmark for global oil pricing. They still do, though Nymex is now part of a group that includes its former competitor, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and most of the trading action happens online rather than on the floor.

Business First Managing Editor Tim O’Shei, a classmate of Goodman’s at St. Bonaventure, recently talked to her about the book and about the oil market. Following is a truncated version of that conversation: Continue reading New Book Reveals Who Controls Global Oil Prices

The Global Oil Casino Benefits Only Its Players

Originally published in The Financial Times on April 6th, 2011

Tensions in the Middle East and north Africa, we are told, lie behind the recent increase in global fuel prices, which Wednesday hit a 2 ½-year high. Yet while Brent crude this week stayed above $120 a barrel, in Tripoli petrol hovered at around 54 cents a gallon. And that is not a typo. The popular reason for why those closest to the fighting, in this case, suffer less than those farther afield, is Libya’s hefty subsidies. The less popular reason is that world energy markets have been carefully designed to profit from the slightest supply hiccup, even if there is little evidence of actual shortages.

The energy-trading fraternity has never let the facts get in the way of a good supply scare. True, this historically fragile market is vulnerable to price swings as demand threatens to climb faster than production. But there is more to it than that. Indeed, what President Barack Obama did not mention last week in his energy security speech about the faults of the global energy market could fill a Saudi oilfield. Continue reading The Global Oil Casino Benefits Only Its Players

Killing Your Own: The Truth About Oil Speculators

Originally published on huffingtonpost.com on Mar. 14, 2011

In the mid-1990s, the U.S. Marine Corps sent more than a dozen generals, colonels and other high-ranking officers to the trading floor of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the world’s reigning oil market. Their mission: to see how the traders behaved when forced to make tough decisions under high stress with incomplete information.

What they found taught them a lot about the nature of the oil speculator. Continue reading Killing Your Own: The Truth About Oil Speculators

The Secret Group Setting the Price of Oil: Us

Originally published on fortune.cnn.com on Mar. 9, 2011

In this excerpt from The Asylum: The Renegades Who Hijacked the World’s Oil Market, Leah McGrath Goodman witnesses a NYMEX energy trader hazing ritual and watches Bill O’Reilly uncover how those traders set the price of a barrel of oil.

It was dawn when I received my first of many after-hours phone calls from Mark Bradley Fisher, otherwise known as the Fish. A self-made millionaire with a Napoleonic sense of his own destiny, Fisher prided himself on his work ethic, his intellectual prowess, and his ability to rise early in the morning and toil late into the night. As a result, he had a habit of calling me almost exclusively at inconvenient times.

It was February 2005, the year Wall Street began to realize something was wrong with the oil market. Fisher, however, was not particularly disturbed. After all, he was one of the wealthiest and most powerful energy traders in the world.

Fumbling in the darkness, I nearly fell out of bed trying to find my cell phone. As I flipped it open, Fisher sounded none too pleased at the five-ring wait. Continue reading The Secret Group Setting the Price of Oil: Us